South Africa Unrest Sets Back Ramaphosa’s Bid to Reorient ANC
Soldiers were mobilised to KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng on Monday (12th July) to support law enforcement. This was in response to violent protests and looting that began in KwaZulu-Natal after ex-president Jacob Zuma was sentenced to 15 months in prison last week for contempt of court. By Monday, the looting of businesses had spread to Mpumalanga and northwest provinces, and President Cyril Ramaphosa declared in an address to the nation that the crisis threatened supply chains for food and Covid vaccination.
There had been infighting in the governing African National Congress (ANC) before this court sentence. Now, it looks like the resulting unrest will prolong the party’s disarray and the political effects will slow the pace of policymaking by the Ramaphosa administration.
Significance – Party divisions and public discontent
Zuma’s imprisonment is an especially difficult problem for the ANC to manage because his home province KwaZulu-Natal is the party’s largest base by membership. Zuma remains popular there despite his refusal to cooperate with the Justice Raymond Zondo-led commission, which is probing alleged state capture during his tenure (2009 to 2018). The Constitutional Court sentenced him to prison last month for his refusal to cooperate with this commission.
The former president’s continued imprisonment further fans divisions within the ANC as Ramaphosa tries to exert his authority and rein in rivals such as the party’s secretary-general, Ace Magashule, who want the government to implement ‘radical economic transformation’ (RET) based on wealth redistribution. A major component of this proposed reform programme is land expropriation without compensation, and a process to enact new terms for expropriation is currently underway in parliament. The Ramaphosa administration has been inclined to moderate the range and impact of such proposals.
Last week, Magashule lost a lawsuit where he challenged his suspension by the ANC due to the party’s resolution in March that all members criminally charged for corruption must step aside. The outcome of that lawsuit would have given Ramaphosa and the rest of the ANC leadership some room to stabilise the party while disciplining uncooperative members. However, that opportunity has now been overshadowed by the ongoing unrest relating to Zuma’s imprisonment. It signifies the present mood within the ANC that KwaZulu-Natal premier Sihle Zikalala suggested a presidential pardon for Zuma to douse tension and help to rebuild cohesion within the party. Even Ramaphosa maintained a placatory tone when he addressed the nation on Monday night about the unrest in the country.
This unrest partly stems from the government’s Covid response and the pandemic’s economic impact. South Africa’s GDP shrank by 7.2% last year and unemployment stood at 32.6% in the first quarter of this year as the government’s Covid lockdown measures hit the economy. This year on 27 June, Ramaphosa again announced level 4 restrictions (level 5 being strictest) to withstand a third wave, and the lockdown was further extended on 11 July for two more weeks as the country continued to see more than 20,000 new cases daily. Restrictions have now been eased for restaurants and similar businesses, but public gatherings and alcohol sales remain prohibited. There is palpable public dissent because of the disruptive effects on employment, business and lifestyle as government struggles to hasten vaccination.
Outlook – Politics and policymaking
There will likely be political tension in the coming weeks with Zuma’s rescission appeal still in progress at the Constitutional Court, but authorities will be able to contain the unrest and stabilise the business environment within a short time. Still, these circumstances appear likely to prolong conflicts inside ANC. With the party divided and key structures in a disoriented state, the complicated process of dealing with these conflicts would limit Ramaphosa’s scope for driving legislation or other long-term policies relevant to investment.
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